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DD - Funko Toys
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below: Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in · For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores) COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. Previous DD:Herman Miller
Hi all, To celebrate the return of Undervalued to the Reddit community, I decided to put together a quick DD and post it on a stock that I have had my eye on for a little while. It's still a "work-in-progress" and I may potentially update it later on Reddit with more information or detail if I have time at some point in the future. If you have any opinions, thoughts, or additional information, please share it. Positive. Negative. Neutral. All information is helpful and informative to the community. (I thought the feedback received from my first DD posted to this sub was quite helpful and I look forward to what you have to say.) Thank you to u/BuyLowSellNever for turning the sub back on; allowing us to share and discuss ideas with the broader community in a thoughtful and respectful manner. Best wishes. - LA Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. 2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below: Funko (FNKO) Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in · For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores) COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates. Previous DD:Herman Miller
2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here Hi everyone. Funko is a great stock that I believe will do well this year. Internet search traffic for Funko has been increasing and is at all-time highs over the last couple of months. The company is selling more of their toys directly to customers through their e-commerce shop (which allows them to capture higher retail revenues than wholesale revenues). And demand for collectibles and toys continues to be strong. Here is a DD I wrote on the company below. I would love to get your thoughts. Funko (FNKO) Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97 Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86 Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14% Next Earnings Release: March 2021 Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties. Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021: · Increasing search traffic for Funko products · Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability · Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID · People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out · Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021 · Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity · Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019) Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020 After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4 · B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year. · Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020 · The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020 “We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes. Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company · Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020) · Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018) · As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales · Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory. · Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment. Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each · According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti. · With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15 PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home. · “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay · “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending · According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.” Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays · Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.” Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong · Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko > Overall comparable sales were up 17.2% > Comparable digital sales were up over 100% > Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2% > Store traffic was up 4.3% > Average ticket size was up 12.3% · GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales > Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020 > Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020 · According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic > A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019) > The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years. MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling · “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020 · The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019 > The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel > Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending · Concert spending is down dramatically > Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020 > About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3) · Movie theater attendance is down substantially > AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020 > Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue > Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue > Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy · Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending > Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy > Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000 > CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy > Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats > Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel. These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity · The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion · More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future · The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019 · Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020 · The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year. Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond · Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc. · Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom · Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia · Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious · TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons · Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE · Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc. COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends. · Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands. · Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream. ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12). · Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries. Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM) · Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales) · Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales) · Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales) Key Financial Trends For Funko · Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31 > Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million > Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher) · Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94% > Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID > Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49% > Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.) · Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum. Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock. Positions: Long Shares & Calls Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier. Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Las Vegas Vacations - The Best Las Vegas Hotels It's a fact that Las Vegas gets a lot of people coming to enjoy the magic of this place. They all have different intentions: some have money in mind; There's some fame, and the rest just want a good vacation. Las Vegas offers many possibilities that it is difficult not to enjoy yourself until the end! Judging by the varieties even Las Vegas residents offer, not every inch of this amazing place may be experienced. Therefore, when you plan your trip to Las Vegas, do your homework and know which place offers the best accommodation. Las Vegas hotels have many tourist attractions and spectacular shows tempting to come to millions of guests and visit this charming place every year. Here is a preview of what to expect from the best hotels in Las Vegas. Mandalay Bass Las Vegas Hotel Mandalay Bay Hotel is located in some of Las Vegas' best-known hotels. In addition to the luxurious rooms offered by the hotel, this hotel features a casino for guests. Even the food is popular to be the best in the city and the hotel consists of five restaurants in 10. Facilitated by a swimming pool, this hotel also offers a twenty-four-hour buffet. Another plus point for this hotel is that the service is so incredible! Hotel in Las Vegas, Paris Located in a dull area, the Paris hotel is a bright, bright rainbow that shows Paris in style. With so many awards for the open service it offers, it's hard to understand the downside to this hotel. This finger offers game facilities with delicious food and in return wants some money inside the hotel. Night shows at this hotel brighten up your nights and in addition; Twenty-fouseven hotel room service is available. MGM Grand Las Vegas Hotel MGM Grand Hotel has been set up in some way to leave you looking, opened on the sites it offers your mouth! Offering lions live, this hotel has more than 100,000 square feet of casino playgrounds. The rooms shown by this hotel know what MGM Grand Hotel customers want and how to give. The shows offer delicious food, let alone to ask for more and the hotel even does not plan to leave in the first place. Bellagio Las Vegas Hotel Bellagio hotel is not a cheap hotel to live in and nor is it cheap gambling to play. Often remembered for the fountains located directly inside the hotel, the beauty it offers keeps every view. Everything about this hotel speaks of luxury and luxury. Even the food is expensive but everything they offer is worth every penny you pay, including the whale show at the hotel. If you can afford to stay at this hotel or play, they can't promise anything less than the best. Hotel in Venice Las Vegas Italian hotel themed rooms also offer an Italian interior decorated with Italian art. The Sistine Chapel being painted on the ceilings, when put together in front of you, is a treat for the eyes. Bringing her a full Italian touch, they have the Gondola available inside the mall, which allows them to ride, all the time they sing the gondola. Monte Carlo Las Vegas Hotel Monte Carlo Hotel is popular as the best family hotel in Las Vegas. Accommodation is very good and comes at a cheap price, gambling is also affordable at this hotel. There's even a place to gamble in the same room when your family has their own privacy. Las Vegas offers these top six Hotels in the service of tourists. While they are expensive, they provide every opportunity to make as much money as possible. If you want to have the best of what Las Vegas has to offer, residency is recommended at any of the hotels.
Rachel Schneider ENG 477 Date 1/11/2021 Marsha Blackburn A Writing Portfolio I want to write my own fiction stories one day; I have had a book or two swimming around in my head so I will put the computer to good use and get that typed out one of these days. In this instance I chose my 5 stories and even though one is a marketing inquiry I had fun writing it, so here are my things and some background some of them. Resume: It is a basic one because my photo ones were not particularly good, and this is an honest resume besides the ones I made for class and I did fudge on those. Cover letter: I made up the cover letter though there is a penguin Books but it is always fun to use your imagination! Hike with Drew: I got the concept from a Writer’s Digest and entered it into a contes I never got a response but good practice. Short Story Vegas: Was one I did for another class but in here I changed it and the story was much better the second time. Marketing Flyer: This was fun to do those are stock photos of the dogs and squeaky toys, but I like Pit Bulls and dog toys are fun as well. Scott part 1-This is a story I am working on with another writer, warning its very sexy and some naughty words are in there as well. Writing Samples: I made these three samples up one day because as I have looked for writing work, I have seen people want a sample of your work, so I came up with these. Rachel Schneider 3867 Houghton Ave Riverside CA 92501 📷 951-743-8911 📷 [email protected] 📷 Rachel Schneider 📷 Rachel7Tori-Twitter 📷 📷 Objective To get a career going in the fiction/short story writing industry my imagination can run with any scenario and to write is to live. 📷 Education Bachelor of Arts in English | Grand Canyon University 2017 – 2021 Took 15 different writing courses, creative writing and even two fun marketing classes all to polish up my craft. Carried a 3.0 GPA and did the courses all online as well. No Degree Obtained | Riverside Community College June 1994 – December 1996 Took these college courses but did not finish got 32 Units of Child Development Courses though which is what I was going for 📷 Experience Cafeteria Worker 1 2008 Currently Employed. Cook, Prep, serve food in a middle school setting, also clean, count inventory and do next day prep, cash handling and POS register experience. Bell Ringer | Salvation Army November 2007 – December 2007 Rang bell and collected donations for the salvation Army in front of various stores during the holiday season. 📷 Skills Food handlers Card CPR First Aid certified Grammar Proficiency Spelling Proficiency Can work from home 📷 Activities Have good use of social media and can help update or bring in new followers with my creative writing side. Have a Reddit account as well with 30 stories up on that site. Can speak a little Spanish and Hebrew as well. 951-743-8911 [email protected] 3867 Houghton Ave Riverside CA 92501
Rachel Schneider
Writer
Penguin Books
Dear JENNIFER MCGREGOR,
1/21/2021 Jennifer McGregor Fiction Publisher 4587 Tropicana Rd. Las Vegas NV 89102 I have included my resume for the short story writer for young adult novels. It has been a few years, but I currently work in a middle school, so I do see all the angst and sass that goes with being a young teen. I do hope my writing samples can help me move to the top of the list. I look forward to working with Penguin Books and letting kids know being a teen is hard at first, but it does not last forever. Sincerely, Rachel Schneider Rachel Schneider 3867 Houghton Ave Riverside CA 92501 It had been a long cold winter Drew and I could not get out for a morning hike till today. Being 75 degrees, we did not have to wear many layers. He is an extremely sweet inquisitive boy who always asks a lot of questions. Why does moss grow on the north side of trees” he asks? Its times like this when it would be nice to have my husband here, but he is overseas where the work is. “well, it’s not just the north side it’s on the shadier side because that is where the moisture is.” On we went looking at snails on the ground watching the deer pass by along a ridge. Being quiet as to not startle them. “Mom he whispered it’s a bunny den they are coming out for food, he leaves a few carrot and lettuce scraps from last night’s dinner. I walked down the path and spotted some glorious Blue Jays and a Downey Woodpecker. “Listen Drew the woodpecker is getting the bugs out of the trees.” My sweet Drew was staring at the Bunnies, they are cute and fluffy after all. We followed our path down further after the bunnies went back to the den. The skies were getting cloudy, so I hoped the rain was not going to come back. Though the weather report said there was a chance. My little explorer with his school uniform on was undeterred, I wish I could wear shorts on a 75 day and not be cold, it is always nice to be young. Walking along our path we spot some squirrels running in circles around the tree. “Why do the chase each other like that” Drew asks. “Maybe it’s a game for them like ring around the Rosie.” On we trek to our favorite stream where the deer family are taking their drinks. I tell Drew we cannot skip stones right now we do not want to scare them. We look through the grass for more of his favorite bugs, saw some worms just below the dirt by a tree. Looking up we see a big spider web being made between two branches. The crows were making their calls in the distance. We are finally able to skip our stones in the stream. He gets some great skips going, and we collect some new rocks for our little garden back home. Walking past the stream we climb up the embankment and up along the ridge where we see a Fox off in the distance. He or she walks the opposite direction we are going so it is a relief we can continue to the clearing. Where there are more bugs, rocks, and Bunnies. We pass the Deer family as they run up the hill to were, they mostly frolic or maybe they live up there. We stop for a snack of Apples, Almonds, and some cheese sticks. When we were finished Drew put a couple of slices in his pocket to feed the Bunnies, I am sure. “Mommy we’re getting to the clearing now we can see the Bunnies and the last time Daddy, and I were here I got some neat rocks too.” Drew told ne enthusiastically, I did love his passion for nature, though again my husband is much better at the nature stuff. I am a pastry Chef ask me about desserts and I am your woman, about why moss grows on trees and hello Google. Since Dad is unavailable, I step in and let him explore and see the world outside of the house and off the screen. It is just another half mile and it is on to the clearing. He starts to pull me hand a little harder I know he is excited. We pass under the tree I glance up and see the Fox again. Then we stop and see “Daddy home…… Name: Rachel Schneider Course: ENG 361 Date: 4/14/2020 Instructor: Debbie Graves One Week In Las Vegas The countdown started Friday at 2pm I got the week off from this thing I call a job (just over broke). The car was packed, it was time to hit the road. The traffic was average and climbing the Cajon Pass was not that bad. I stopped in Baker to have my favorite meal at Bob’s Big Boy, the chili spaghetti, no onions. After making my way back on the highway the traffic picked up going out of Baker, through to Primm and Stateline. I had to stop for gas at Whiskey Pete’s, so I also went in and got some snack goodies. My favorite trail mix and some cheese potato chips because vending machines are too expensive. The road was beckoning so off I went, traveling through Jean is always nice, not much to see. A prison, a few remaining casinos, some outbuildings, and a truck stop. There slogan was always fun 40 smiles closer than Vegas. You can get bored so be sure to pack some music you can have your own car concert. “I’ll face it with a grin I’m never giving in, on with the show” (Show Must Go on by Queen) Finally, the Vegas skyline is in sight, the lights are not on yet, but they will be needing to navigate around the strip. I do say a few words the terrible drivers. This vacation was so needed my job is crazy, my kids are older now and do not need mom around anymore. Off they went to grandma’s house and I booked the week at the Delano, it is attached to the Mandalay bay so perfect access to all the fun of the strip, and just enough luxury to not look cheap. Getting the valet to take the car I check into my genuinely nice room I have a great view of the Luxor light (that comes off the top of the hotel) and the Excalibur. Now off to indulge in that genuinely nice bathtub and get some overdue reading done. My bathroom with a view has the Luxor light and that is the brightest light on the Vegas strip it comes right out of the top of the Pyramid shaped hotel. A brightness of 42.3 billion candela, you could read a paper from 10 miles straight up if you wanted to. Once I was well soaked and finished with my chapters it was time to find something to eat besides my snack foods. After cruising the room service options, I settled on some Mexican food of chorizo and eggs with nice corn tortillas. That hit the spot so with the extra energy it was time to get out for a stroll of the property. The indoor pool is nice but small and I want to soak up the sunshine and get some exercise so I shall hit the outdoor pool tomorrow. Back in the lobby I grab those ads for things to do in the city so I can plan out the rest of my trip. There are thousands of things to do in Vegas. Do not be disappointed if you do not get everything done, that is what the next trip is for. I have a beautiful week and I want to have a good time and not have to wait for anybody, I can do what I want. I got those and cruised up through the lobby and toward the casino on my way there I saw a sign for a food and wine festival. With that guy Zac from the travel channel. Thinking hmm I did not know he was interested in food or wine. I went down and found my favorite penny slot game Lucky cat. After 15 minutes I came out putting 20 in and winning 500, so I called it a night and went to the bar to catch a hockey game and grab a fun fruity drink (I like tequila sunrise, (Tequila, grenadine, and cranberry juice). As I am rooting for the Golden Knights (local Vegas hockey team) I looked over to my left and there was Zac from the travel channel, and he likes hockey too this is awesome, and I am trying not to be a fan girl. The game was in intermission and the Knights were winning so it was time for a new fruity drink so this time I turned around to get back to the bar and bumped right into Zac, boy was my face red. After some apologies and an offer to buy my next fruity drink (a Strawberry Daiquiri) it was a yes and I spilled that I was a fan. He told me he does have an interest in food and wine not just chasing ghosts with his crew. We had some great conversation and when the game came back on, we both sat in the booth cheering the golden knights to their victory. Now I am buzzed and standing up was going to be fun, but Zac was a true gentleman and helped me to my feet. He offered to buy me dinner. The Taco Hut was a good place the tortillas were fresh, and the company was so cool. The conversation turned to food, wine, travel, and some stuff about me. The midnight hour rolled around, and Zac had an early morning, so we said goodnight, but he was staying one floor above me, so we agreed to go to the diner in the lobby for breakfast or brunch. At 10am I was enjoying my company and this great stick to your ribs breakfast (scrambled eggs, sausage, hash browns and some great watermelon) The food offerings in Vegas are so varied you can get everything from a hot dog and beer for 1.99 at the Orleans, to a 5-star meal at Caesar’s Palace the buffets are great too. Although sometimes you want a nice sit-down dinner. The conversation was effortless the attraction was deep. We made plans to see each other again after the food contest he was judging was over. Saying goodbye was a bit hard but the hand holding was sweet and made me feel like a schoolgirl again. After saying goodbye and I did watch him walk into the convention hall I went back to my room to plan out the rest of my day. I chose a tour of the Mob Museum, they say that Vegas was built with Mob money, but it was a Mormon founded town that later Hollywood discovered. Then many people in Hollywood who were well connected (such as East Coast mobsters) financed Bugsy Segal to build the Flamingo Hotel. As I was putting my shoes on, I got a knock on the room door and as I opened it, I got some flowers (pink roses) and an all-access pass to the food and wine festival courtesy of Zac. Let us just say the Mob Museum can wait for later I got to go to a food and wine festival and spend the rest of the week with Zac. “hi Zac thanks for the flowers it was sweet of you to remember.” He said, “It’s always right to remember a ladies flower preference because that’s the right thing to do.” Smiling the rest of the day I meet other travel channel celebrities and got to taste some great foods and many different wines. The food and wine offerings at the hotels and restaurants are varied, the Las Vegas area have become very international, so the varieties are endless. The week went by in a blur of food, wine, conversation, and some sweet dates. I never thought I would get over the break-up that happened the week before. Getting a private Vegas tour was something completely special. I did get to see the Mob Museum, Mandalay Bay Fine Art Museum, seven magic mountains, Pinball Hall of fame and a private dinner at the food and wine festival. My days in Vegas were down to one. We had reservations at Rivera right here at the Delano the view is amazing, the food is impressive with Italian and French offers. “I have had a wonderful time this week Zac thank you for mending my broken heart.” He looked at me for a minute and said, “it’s been a pleasure to get to know you and I would not mind visiting your hometown, you always have a reason to come back to Las Vegas. The next food and wine festival is around Christmas, this one will include chocolate.” Hitting the 15 early the next morning I have visions of Christmas, a pass to the food and wine festival, also a brand-new relationship to take back home with me. The End When writing a short story, you want to keep it from rambling and have enough details to keep it fresh. When your reader gets into the story you want them to feel like they are there with you, going to the food and wine festival, on that hike through the seven-mountains or touring the mob museum. The details are the thing to see and make sure to watch out for punctuation and common language. An average short story is within 6,00 words or 24 pages. If you wanted too you could go short-short story and that is between 500 and 2,00 words. That comes out to be 6 pages (Minot, Steven Ch. 7 pg. 41), talk about short stories. The story is all your length and style matter as much as how you want it to come into focus. Minot, Steven and Theil Daniel Three genres the writing of literary pose, poems and plays Ninth edition Pearson Publications 2012 Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium August 18,2019📷📷 24755 Holly Grove Way Brookings OR, 97415 Dear Dogs, Rule the World I am Rachel Schneider from the Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium we make extra bouncy dog toys for our furry friends. We investigated different marketing companies and choose you to do our direct to customer marketing. The way the website is set up the customers can get the product’s directly from you is easier than a multi-level marketing plan. The distribution of Bouncy Dog Toy will be a one level channel, we will provide the toys you market, and we sell them. I would like to get some videos of our company dogs Mac and Stella playing with the toys so you can post on the website. A link for the company can also be included so the consumers know where the toys came from, what they are made of and any other facts about Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium. Sincerely, Rachel V Schneider Mac and Stella company dogs and testers 📷 📷 📷📷 📷A sample of our products, our bounciest toys. Scott’s Story Part 1 I am Scott Thorn, and I am going back to WDU for the first time in 15 years, I went here for a year but after I came out as gay there really were no gay dudes. I am all men but yeah lesbians were all around some BI guys but no real gay dudes. I went back to the mainland and attended Preston University I majored in administration and minored in Literature. I did at one point in my life have a girlfriend and wanted to marry her, but I could not quash the gay lifestyle. That part of my life is over and now the old school offered me a counseling job, have not done this in a while. I get to help students toward there after college career. I sit here on this boat and keeping an eye on my 75 Triumph I have some nerves, but it is mostly about seeing this place again, so as the boat pulls up, I get my bike going and make a stop at my new on campus apartment. Its west facing because I like sunsets more than sunrise, so I did not know it needed so much work. I have some handy skills but a little at a time. The kitchen is decent and so is the bathroom. The floors will need some polish and the deck needs to be stained, this is a duplex, so I hope the neighbors are quiet. It is furnished and done nicely so I cannot complain too much, but back on the bike to see the Dean. I get my bike set with the kill switch and walk up the way to the Admin building, I am pretty much the only one dressed. I am wearing my good black jeans and my dress shirt, in my favorite color Maroon. I do remember this place was obsessed with sex so I will stick out wearing clothes, as I enter the building at least more admin people are dressed. Miss Grant the secretary shows me to my new office, its spacious much bigger that my last one at Preston where I shared a cubicle with another person. I have files from past students and current ones, so I started filing them when Dean Kane walks in, booty shorts and a tank top. “Welcome back to WDU Scott, we look forward to seeing you succeed you come very recommended.” I could hardly concentrate because this Dean was hung but I persevered and said, “Thank you sir I look forward to helping young students find there after WDU careers.” After he left, I had to get my rise to settle then I continued filing and looking through some files. Clarissa Love that was a name that got around even all the way to Preston. I think she does the Jax in the bedroom or something like that. I started looking around and thought I need some life in this office so I asked Miss Grant about decorating and she said I could do what I wanted but no painting, so I went to town and checked out a flea market. I found some pictures of the beaches of Canada, some old homes in the area and a few movie posters from Rocky horror Picture Show (it is my favorite). The flea market said they will deliver to the school tomorrow so I told them I will be there at 9am. Now with my day done I get to the store to buy some groceries and realize this place uses sextons and I was down to my last few, so now I will need to exchange but thankfully a bank is nearby so I can get some of my mainland money exchanged. I pull up to my new pad off load my few groceries and notice some other tenant left beer in the fridge, talk about luck. I got the beer went to the deck and watched the sunset over the sky. It was going to be new here, but I needed a fresh start after getting dumped and losing the job because my ex was in upper management, never will I do that again. I will find someone who does not work in the school system. After I ate a roast beef and cheddar sandwich for dinner, watched some cooking shows it was time for bed. As I was brushing my teeth, I heard the neighbors having sex. Oh, goody they are not quiet. hope they do not have super energy either. Tomorrow is my first full day and I have decorating to do, fantastic they stopped, that is the thing with us older people we do not fuck like bunnies anymore. As far as I know the neighbors are lesbians so who knows. Sample 1- If I try my hardest, I could muster up enough courage to ask the prettiest girl in school to prom. I had a suit; bolo tie and I will shine my old boots up. The thing is my courage is not as strong as my best friend Nick, now there is one brave dude who just asked the girl I wanted to go to prom with and of course she said yes. I gather myself close my locker and put on my best smile for them both. Nick and I high five and I hug her, trying to be genuine but it is hard. I head to my Social studies class and sit down next to Megan she looks at me with some concern I tell her what happened, she then asks me to Prom…... Sample 2-Wishing I did not have to be here I sit at the back of the funeral and think about my old high school principal. I grew up in a small town and everyone knew everyone, we only had one school and you went there for kindergarten through senior year. After my graduation I packed up my old car and headed out to what I thought was the real world. Living in a bigger city only helped spur my loneliness so who says you cannot come home again, well Mom for starters because I abandoned my family, I am not welcome at home ever again (so tired of her drama), so I am staying at Principal Mason’s house yes, the same principal that I am at a funeral for I held her hand as she lay there succumbing to cancer…… Sample 3-If you really want to get over a breakup getting back on the horse will help things along. I thought that too seven lousy dates ago so here I am on date number 8 and I am not seeing any birds singing or rainbows in the sky. He steps away to take a call he is a particularly important lawyer after all (I need to fix my picker) after he comes back, he says it go time the jury has come back so off he goes. I finish my drink and head back to my brownstone close by, I pass the new chocolate shop that just opened, and I get inside and see chocolate heaven. Looking around I do not see him at first but there he is my old college lab partner Sam I just saw a rainbow…….
Who would you hang out with in these hypothetical scenarios below pt4 (Night Edition)
Read the post to get the context: My mind likes thinking about the various realms of possibilities and themes. Based on your perspective, which scenario would you choose if you were invited to the activities below by the following characters:
Ghost Story Night – You decide to join Mercedes during the night to tell scary ghost stories with Ashe, Lysithea, Annette, and Alois. You both decide to hold a group challenge where the one who lasts the longest without screaming wins. It’ll be an entertaining night for sure to see who holds out the longest, but probably not for most of the group.
Casino Night – You decide to head to a Casino in Las Vegas with Balthus, Shamir, Manuela, Catherine, and Anna to spend the night gambling and trying to win big. It’ll be a good time for people who seek the rush of betting and the chance to watch a few shows with Manuela.
Buffet Feast Night – You decide to join Claude, Raphael, Caspar, Ingrid, Leonie, and Petra in going to an all-you-can-eat buffet booked by the King of Feasts, Claude himself. There’ll be great food and great friends at a good price. Let’s just hope no one gets banned for eating the buffet dry.
Poetry Night – You decide to join Lorenz, Constance, Ferdinand, Seteth, Dorothea, Bernadetta, and Sylvain in a poetry slam. Those who enjoy writing and poetry will feel the words embedded within their soul. You may have to bear with listening to some of the more cringy ones though.
Stargazing Night – You decide to join Hapi, Yuri, Flayn, Ignatz, Marianne, and Hilda in going stargazing near the open space in Gronder Field. The skies are clear, and the many stars shine bright as Hapi explains which stars belong to which constellation, and with a big telescope to see them.
Night Fencing – You decide to meet with Byleth, Felix, Edelgard, Dimitri, and Jeritza for a nightly swordfencing meeting. It may get very intense with everyone except maybe Byleth being very competitive in the sport, but you’ll try your best not to get overwhelmed. You may need to deal with Felix and Edelgard arguing with Dimitri a lot during the night.
A Vegas Miracle - how I won $129,000 in my 3rd tournament ever
This is how I won $129,000 in my 3rd ever poker tournament. Note: don't try this, it probably won't turn out well for you. I spent about 6 months grinding up a $5,000 bankroll playing home/casino games ranging from .5/1 to 1/3. The week that I hit that $5,000 mark, Matt, one of my best friends from college informed me that his job had placed him in Las Vegas for the next month and that I could crash with him for a few nights if I wanted to come on out west. I had frequent flyer miles for the flight and some Mlife/Fremont hotel comps for the rest of the trip. My grand total for flight and lodging for 10 days came to $200. Now, I’m not going to bore you guys with low-level cash hand histories. The next 10 days were filled with me playing lowstakes poker for 10-12 hours a day. It’s as fun as it sounds – it’s not. I was having a good time in Vegas otherwise – but towards the end of the trip I had a realization: 1/2’s the same everywhere. I didn’t have to fly out to the desert to raise to $7 preflop. After 10 days, my grand total from poker (and a fair amount of dumb degenerate shit on Fremont) was -$186. That wasn’t what I came out to do — I knew that I was a better player than my recent results had indicated. The morning of my return flight, I decided I was going to play tournaments until I either busted my $5,000 bankroll or hit something worthwhile. I impulsively decided to not get on my plane at 11:30am. Checkout time from Luxor was at 11:00 – and I didn’t know where I was going yet. I had 30 minutes to pack up my stuff and figure out where I was going before they’d charge me a fee. I sorted TripAdvisor by cheapest first – I’ve stayed in crappy hostels/motels before and overall am a very low maintenance person. I figured that by staying somewhere for $20 a night, I’d be able to maximize the amount of shots I could take before flying back home. I accepted that there was a real chance I’d go back broke – but I didn’t really care. If I didn’t take my shot now, then when? I booked the cheapest bed in Vegas - a 6-person shared hostel just past the Stratosphere. Let's just say you get what you pay for — it was not a happy place. A fair amount of the people in there were bordering on homelessness and there was barbed wire surrounding their outdoor gym. In addition to this, I had the constant stress of knowing that all that separated my bankroll from the rest of my roommates was a tiny lock. I took the Deuce to the strip, lived off food comps, and turned down invites from my friends to hang out. I was in town to play poker, nothing else. Disclaimer: I had never played tournaments prior to heading out to Vegas. My only knowledge of hand ranges was from watching televised events. I downloaded a free Nash chart app on my phone while on the Deuce to the strip and studied it for 5 minutes – whatever, I get the jist of it. Let’s play some cards. The first day of doing this I played the $140 daily at the Aria. Top 13 spots paid -- I finished in 15th. It was depressing to say the least — I felt as if I was at rock bottom. Before the first night of sleeping at the hostel I called the airline to see if I could get on the flight that I had deliberately missed the day prior. I couldn't. I made it my goal to at least cash something so that I could get a decent hotel room. I couldn’t have slept more than 2-3 hours the first night there. One of my roommates was loudly vomiting all night, the sheets itched, and I was going through an existential crisis... like dude, you’ve got a finance degree and you’re really doing this shit? While on the bus to the strip, I opened Poker Atlas and saw that there was a $200 satellite to win a seat into the $1,600 Venetian main event. I decided that I was going to go take a shot at that. I was at risk twice in the satellite but after studying the GTO method on how to win coinflips, I persevered and won a seat to the main. The first day was surreal – once again, I was running on minimal sleep due to my housing arrangements, but I remember the following hands from day 1:
Button opens to 2.2x, I’m in the BB with Q9cc. SB folds, we go HU to a flop of 832c. He c-bets, I call. Turn 4x, x/x. River Ax. I check, he bets, I x/r to like 3x his bet, he insta folds. I take it down and show air.
UTG+1 opens, MP calls, I flat on the button with K10ss. 3 ways to a flop of Qs43xx. UTG+1 bets 40% pot, MP calls, I call. Turn is the Js. UTG+1 bets 60% pot, MP calls, I flat. River comes the 8s. UTG+1 snap bets 80%. MP flats, I flat. I announce king high flush, they both muck.
Folds to the SB, he limps, I look down at Q10o, and check. Flop comes KQ6r. He leads 35%, I call. Turn 10. He bets, I call. River comes a J. He bets, I tank for about 45 seconds then flick in a call, he shows 76o… ship it.
The average stack after day 1 was around 40k, I bagged like 65k. I walked back to the Deuce stop outside of the Venetian and headed on my 30 minute ride back home. I kept thinking to myself, someone’s gotta win this thing, why not me? I had to get in the money for this tournament to be able to get the fuck out of there. A min cash here was over $3k – that was more than enough for me to get a suite on Fremont for a few nights and party for a bit, then get home with my head held high. Day 2: I get up at 7am after already being completely awake for the past 4 hours. There’s no way I slept more than 3 hours last night. I hit the Denny’s by the Stratosphere then get on the Deuce. I get to the Venetian and feel like I’m about to fall asleep. I go to the self-serve coffee/tea dispenser in the middle of the room and make myself an iced coffee. I get to my table, and the cocktail waitress comes around. I ask for another iced coffee and toss her a fiver. Here are some highlights from the 1st half of day 2:
I open 97ss on the button, BB flats. Flop comes AK3s. BB checks, I bet 35%. He throws out a 5k chip – which I interpret as a x/r to my bet. I groan, make a joke about it being the first hand of the day, and start to muck. The dealer stops my cards midway before hitting the muck, and informs me that he didn’t raise, that he called my flop bet. Everyone laughs, I go silent and wait for him to make change. Turn is the 2s. He thinks for a second and bets 30%. I tank for like 30 seconds, then flat. River is a blank. He thinks for a second, then checks. I bet like 30% pot. He tells me that I’m an angle shooter and mucks. I tell him I’m not an angle shooter and show my 9 high. Everyone laughs, we get on with playing.
CO opens, I 3b 87dd in the SB to 4x, he flats. Flop comes 1032d. I check, he checks. Turn is the 6d. I bet 55% pot, he flats. River comes the Kd. I bet 60%, he tanks, tells me he thinks I backdoored diamonds, then folds. Damn, these players are pretty good.
I open KK UTG to 2.5x, UTG +1 flats. Heads up to a flop of K43r. x/x. Turn 8, I bet 40% pot, he calls. River 3, I bet 80% pot, he tanks, then calls with AK.
I bring my 3 racks of chips to the new table and immediately get some comments – whatever, I’m just on a heater, it happens. At this point, my body was giving out. I was trying my hardest not to fall asleep in between every hand. Cutoff opens, I’m in the SB, I look down at KK. I put in the 3b, folds back to him. He puts in a healthy 4. We’re the two big stacks at the table – I’d guess he was 50bb effective while I was around 65bb. God damn, am I good enough to fold kings here? No, I’m not. I shove, he snaps, I know that I’ve just fucked up my tournament. He shows the aces. The dealer puts a king in the window, and I hold. I’m for sure the chip leader now. I lose a few 40/60 and 60/40 flips and chip down a bit. I still have a very healthy stack, probably around 80bb. The next 3 hands are from the second half of day 2:
Aggro Asian guy on the button. Folds to him, he opens to 2.2x, SB folds, I look down at 43ss and raise to 7.5x, he flats.
Flop comes 894cc. I check, he bets, I call. Turn’s another 9. I check, he bets 75% pot, I call. River’s the 10c. I check, he bets 1.2x pot. I ask the dealer for a count of the bet – meanwhile, villain looks like he’s going to shit himself. I flick in a chip, he throws down KcQx. I laugh a little, show my 43ss, and obnoxiously say ship it.
I open KQo UTG+1, MP 3bets me. I figure that a 4b from UTG+1 could take it down a fair amount of the time, so I decide to go for it. He thinks for a second and flats.
Flop comes AK4r. I check, he checks back. Turn is a 6, goes x/x again. River’s another brick. I put in a 30% value bet. He does a little grimace and tanks for like 20 seconds. It looks like he’s going to fold so I start verbally telling him that his queens are good. The dealer informs me that you’re not allowed to talk about your hand to another player. I inform him that I’m not talking about my hand, I’m talking about villains’ hand. Dealer laughs and lets me continue to antagonize villain. MP starts talking back, asking if I’m really bluffing. I inform him that once he folds, I’ll show the bluff. He ends up calling, I snap show, he pays me then gets up from the table to go for a walk.
We’re playing 6 handed. UTG opens, MP flats, I flat TT on the button. 3 ways to a flop of AT9ccc. UTG bets 50% pot, MP folds, I put in a medium sized raise. He thinks about it and flats.
The turn is the Kd. He pauses for a second then checks. I figured AxKc was his most likely combo. I didn’t think he could fold AxKc to any sizing – I decide to overbet jam 2x pot. He tanks for like 5 min and eventually lets it go. He tells me later he folded AxKc. Nice fold sir. I finished day two 2nd in chips out of the 64 players remaining. More importantly, I was in the money. My friend Matt offered to give me a ride to the hostel to grab my stuff. On the way to the hostel I’m telling Matt how trash the place is and he’s kind of like yeah man, whatever, it can’t be that bad. We gather my belongings and head on out. Matt remarked to me that the hostel reminded him of jail mixed with a summer camp. I open a same night hotel app and see a room at the Four Queens available for $110. The lady at check in was nice enough – however, she informed me that the only room they had available at my price point was a smoking room overlooking the Fremont St. experience. I paid the $20 to upgrade to a non-smoking in the quiet part of the hotel. Vegas man, I swear. It’s like 2am at this point -- I get to my room, sit on the bed and close my eyes. I open them and it’s 11:00am. Ah fuck man, I gotta get to the Venetian. I hop in the shower, brush my teeth, and freshen up. Even if I don’t have clean clothes, whatever, I’m second in the main, who cares. Some interesting hands from the first part of Day 3:
I had two inexcusable punts in this tournament. This is the first one: I open 5h5c from LP, BB calls. Flop comes J62hhh. x/x. Turn is a 4x. x, I bet 50% pot, BB jams 15bb. I called – and immediately realized I fucked up, big time. He had 2 big chips in his stack that I didn’t see, making his shove effectively like 25bb. In addition, I didn’t have the 5h, I had the 5d. I really didn’t ask for a count or double check my hole cards. Villain turns over 64o and holds. In my defense, I literally didn’t know what ICM meant at the time. Whoops.
Someone who I recognize from poker TV jams 22bb UTG. I’m in the CO with JJ, I ask him how much it is, he’s talkative and seems genuinely comfortable/down for me to call. I fold – I run into him a few days later at the Aria, he tells me he had AA there. I believe him.
CO opens, button instantly jams 30bb effective. I’m in the SB with TT and 25bb – live reads, we’re flipping. I call for all in my effective stack, CO folds, button has AQ. I hold. He’s not happy I called with tens. Oh well, sorry bro, gg.
MP opens, CO 3 bets to 7bb, button jams 20bb. I look down at 2 black aces in the big blind. I reshove, MP folds, CO calls off his 20bb stack. I’m up against AQ and QQ. I hold.
Even with my atrocious punt earlier in the day, I’m the chip leader again. We’re down to about 15 left in the field. UTG opens, I 3b AKo on the button, he jams 20bb, I call. He has 99, a king comes on the flop and he’s gone. It’s day 3 of the main and we’re playing 5 handed with 12 people left. Let’s fucking go.
Button opens to 2.5x, I’m in the BB with A8dd, I flat. Flop comes A104r, I check, he bets, I call. Turn is a 7, x/x. River A, I bet 1.2x pot. He tanks, calls, I show, I’m good.
CO opens to 2.5x, I’m in the BB with 108dd, I flat. Flop comes Kd4x2d, it goes x/x. Turn is a Kx, I check, he bets 60% pot, I flat. River is the 4d. I check, he bets pot. I tank and let it go. He tells me later he checked back a weak king on the flop.
SB completes, I’m in the BB with J9o and I check my option. Flop comes Q108r. The SB donks out into me for 60% pot. I flat. Turn comes a brick and he leads into me for 60% again. I raise to 3.5x his turn bet, he thinks for a while then flats. River is another brick. He bets 80% pot into me. I tank for a while, then shove. He starts laughing and folds QQ face up.
Less than a week ago I was grinding buffet comps at Planet Hollywood. Now I have guys correctly folding top set to me. I’ve made it to the final table. I pick up a few small pots and the two shortstacks at the table get eliminated in quick succession. This is without a doubt the most pointless and just plain out stupid punt of my entire life: I open J2dd on the button into a ~18bb SB and a GTO robot with mid 7 figures in career earnings in the BB. Don’t do this, this is quite literally lighting money on fire. SB folds, BB flats. Flop comes Kh8h3d. I cbet, BB calls. Turn is the Kd, goes x/x. River comes a 7h, he leads into me for half pot. Whatever, I’m going for it – I put in a raise. He thinks for all of 5 seconds then calls me with KQh. Wow, I just punted away $50,000 in ICM. Jesus Christ dude, what the fuck. For the next orbit or two, I’m clearly pissed at myself. I get up after my button and do a lap around the poker room – I’m good. The monkey tilt is gone, and I’m ready to get back to playing normal ranges. Anyway, nothing else really happens for a while – I look down at AKo UTG and raise it up. Folds around to the BB, he thinks for a while, then jams for about 20bb. I snap, he has AQo. I hold. I’m now second in chips. We go on a 10-minute break. When I get back to the table, the prospect of a 5-way chop comes up. We’re all tired – and the pay jumps are very significant. If you couldn’t tell from this story, I’m a degenerate, but in this spot, I’m willing to reduce variance a bit. We run the numbers and come to an agreement – we all agree to take a very slight ICM bump to give 1st place a bit more money than his stack is worth. I just won $129,000 -- huh? This was my second tournament cash – not too bad considering that it was my third tournament ever. Maybe I should start learning how to play MTT’s now. I take $124,000 in a check and $5,000 in cash. I’m leaving Vegas in 4 days and don’t plan on coming home with any of the cash. The winner of the tournament’s a pretty cool guy and he asks if I want to crash in his guest room tonight… like yeah, if that’s a real offer, I’m down. I pick up my toiletry bag from the Venetian concierge and we hit the Uber. The next morning Matt picks me up at his house – I hit the Chase bank and deposit the $124,000. I take Matt and my other friend, Spencer out to the Sterling Brunch over at Bally’s – the entire time, Spencer just kept repeating “Davis, what the fuck”. I don’t know dude, seriously, what the fuck. I get a suite at the D downtown that night and (very) long story short I end up hitting $100 on a number at roulette at 5am. It’s time for bed. Here’s a link to my Hendon Mob, verifying my tournament result. Hopefully I see some of you guys at the WSOP in 2021. https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=783521 Davis
NOTE: This is FAKE HOCKEY. To talk about actual hockey, go to the latest Daily Discussion thread Trade Deadline Tonight will continue TONIGHT! The /hockey Trade Deadline Game is back for day 2! Starting today at 8:00 AM MT trading is officially open again. Trading will run until Thursday, January 30th at 6:00 PM MT. You are not late! You can still sign up at http://www.tdgdb.com When you are traded, change your flair on hockey-related subreddits and spend the week from January 31st through February 7th cheering for your new team. Here are this year's reporters, the people who will make things up break news of trade negotiations:
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