This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
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Know When to Stop
Ports can be a great deal of fun, but also for it to remain that way you must know when it's time to stop. Offer it some severe consideration as well as identify your objectives for playing slots. Determine how much time and money you want to spend playing slots as well as stay liable. Ports can be one of one of the most rapid as well as most exhilarating experiences, which is why it is very important to set some restrictions prior to you get rotating. You do not wish to get so caught up in the excitement that you spend way more than you can afford to chase after a payout.
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Play Greater Religions
To boost the chance of you striking a winning combination, constantly choose the higher religion ports. You must play slots with higher denomination wagers available as usually as possible since these ports are the most likely to provide you a payment. Repayment percents of port games are relative to the religion of the wager, or the cost of a spin. The greater the religion, the higher the payback portion, indicating you'll have a far better chance of striking playing ports with higher denominations.
Bet the Maximum
Bet the optimum to obtain all the lines at work throughout your spin. Ports with numerous lines need particular bets to be triggered, and betting the max is just as great. Whenever you're playing slots, it's ideal to wager the maximum feasible to raise your possibilities of striking a payout. Several attributes such as in-game bonus offers and also modern rewards can't also be activated unless you bank on all the offered lines. Wager the optimum whenever you're playing slots to make certain you don't miss out on any kind of part of a slot video game.
The Even More Made complex the Video Game, the Lower Your Probabilities
The even more complex the video game, the reduced your chances of hitting that payout. All those special added functions do not assist, and as fun, as they might be, keeping track of bonuses, multipliers, as well as progressive jackpots when playing a complicated slot does not make it any type of simpler. Instead, play some of the most preferred port games that aren't made complex to obtain the best chances each time you rotate. Inspect out the 11 most preferred on-line slot video games and discover one to play right now.
Check the Games You Play
As opposed to betting on ports you've never played before, evaluate them out initially. Play the cost-free slots version for each of the titles you're interested in. In this manner you can check out the slot ideas you have actually read, create an approach as well as technique so you'll be ready when it's time to play with genuine money at stake. Do not ever squander your time and money playing slots you don't take pleasure in. Find a new video game quickly. You can play cost-free demonstration variations of nearly every slot game offered at each online gambling establishment. Commonly these free trials are playable before you even have an account set up.
Don't Stress Over 'Due' Payouts
It's hard for some individuals to accept, but slot video games reach the outcome of each spin at any kind of slot game is totally random. This is one of those must-have ports pointers: 'Due' payments don't exist. Controlled by the arbitrary number generator (RNG), all the port mixes are randomly diverse and also chosen when you spin the slot. Only port spins that struck a winning combination receive a payout, as well as there's no way to understand when that'll take place. Any individual informing you or else is wrong.
Limited Machines do Exist
Occasionally, you'll meet a tight vending machine, one that simply never appears to strike. These machines will have you spinning far as well long without a solitary hit, making you invest greater than you probably need to simply trying to appeal a single slot game. Tight machines are a lot more usual than you might think, particularly when you include all the slots with a terrible repayment portion. Limited machines are dreadful, yet a minimum of you can likewise find loose ports that will strike regularly and also give regular payments also. RELATED: Ports one of 10 online casino video games with the least expensive house edge. Examine them full blast right here.
Cash over Card
When playing slot machines in person, we suggest you stay with having fun with cash rather than with credit history or debit cards. There are almost say goodbye to coin-based slots at casinos, yet you can still pick smaller sized religions after putting cash. Physically placing costs into the fruit machine as you play will make you extra familiar with the cash you invest playing port games. In contrast to swiping whenever you want to rotate, using cash as you play port video games can aid you wager within your limits. When playing online ports, offer yourself a collection amount to deal with.
Know When to Quit
Ports can be a great deal of enjoyable, however, for it to stay that way you need to know when it's time to quit. Offer it some significant factor to consider as well as determine your goals for playing slots. Decide how much time and money you agree to invest playing slots and also remain accountable. Slots can be one of one of the most fast and also most thrilling experiences, which is why it is very important to establish some limitations prior to you get spinning. You don't want to get so caught up in the enjoyment that you invest way more than you can pay for to chase after a payout.
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Think of that you remain in a land-based gambling establishment as well as sitting ideal in front of you is the similar slots that you possess in the house. Currently, wouldn't it make good sense that considering that you already own the identical one-armed bandit that everybody appears to be losing on, that you are the only individual who understands the features of exactly how that fruit machine gamer? Unlike the various other people in the gambling enterprise, you are the ONLY INDIVIDUAL that RECOGNIZES how to PLAY and WIN on that particular slot machine. There is NO BETTER method to WIN playing an one-armed bandit than OWNING an one-armed bandit of your very own! We market all popular slots versions including yet not limited to, OGT fruit machine, Bally vending machine, Williams vending machine and others! See all slots offer for sale below! https://www.inthenewage.com/SLOT-MACHINES_c_438.html We offer genuine #casino #slotmachines, #pokermachines, #arcade #games like pacman, pinball machines, jukeboxes, #cherry #master #games, 8-liner games, 10-liner video games, as well as even 20-liner #video #slot #machines IN THE NEW AGE http://inthenewage.com
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I'm making a comprehensive and tentative guide of every adult swim original available to stream. Here's what I have so far
LAST UPDATED Sep 13th, 2018 [Added some new 24/7 streams] There is a TON of full adult swim shows that are readily available to steam on their website or elsewhere, and it can be crazy trying to find it all. I've attempted to compile a comprehensive guide for every adult swim original that can or cannot be streamed. EDIT: So this was featured on adult swims front page, which was cool... until Turner came in and took down most of the youtube videos that weren't on adult swim's channel. It sucks because it was mostly the pilots that you can't find virtually anywhere. I've marked through any video thats been taken down.
These shows have nearly every episode on the site but are missing a few. I'll provide links to the missing episodes if available. Aqua Teen Hunger Force - Full seasons 1-9, partial seasons 10 and 11 which are available on Hulu Dream Corp LLC - Missing "You Down with OCD?" but this changes from time to time. There's usually at least 5 episodes. Available on Hulu. Mary Shelley's Frankenhole - Missing "Mother To Be-sa", an unaired banned episode. (Download)
I will be adding more to this list as I come across them April Fools' Prank 2010 - Cut of all the bumps in between The Room with Space Ghost interviewing Tommy Wiseau April Fool's Prank 2011 - The Room full block with Earth Ghost April Fools' Prank 2012 - The Return of Toonami full block (Bleach, Dragon Ball Z, Mobile Suit Gundam Wing, Tenchi Muyo! Ryo-Ohki, Outlaw Star, The Big O, Yu Yu Hakusho, Blue Submarine No. 6, Trigun, Astro Boy, and Gigantor) April Fools' Prank 2018 - Subbed Toonami (FLCL Alternative, Mind Game (full movie), JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Stardust Crusaders, Hunter x Hunter, Naruto: Shippuden, Space Dandy, Cowboy Bebop, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex 2nd Gig, and Scavengers) Daylights Savings 2017 - Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film For Theaters aired in the extra hour for DST. Includes commercials and bonus episodes of King of the Hill, Rick and Morty, and Ben 10 Aqua Teen Hunger Force Banned Boston Episode - Unaired episode about their Boston bomb scare. Uncensored and unfinished! Clerks: The Animated Series - aired Friday nights on adult swim in 2008 High School USA! - Fox series made by Dino Stamatopoulos (Moral Orel, Frankenhole). I'm not sure if this aired on adult swim or not. Mission Hill - Classic old syndicated show. Individual episode playlist on internet archive or Youtube. The PJ's - Old Fox series by Eddie Murphy. Wonder Showzen - NOT an adult swim show but for anyone who is a fan of PFFR (Xavier, The Heart She Holler), this is an essential watch. Besides, adult swim wanted this show anyway. If you notice any broken or missing links, please let me know! Likewise, if you have any material that could go here, leave a suggestion (I've personally been specifically searching for full blocks of their 16th Anniversary weeks). Happy Streaming!
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